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Prediction Tracker

I shoot off my mouth a lot, and, like a good pundit should, I expect to be held accountable for my predictions. Below are some of the predictions I've made over the years and how they're shaping up. You can judge for yourself how well I'm doing, but keep in mind, prognostication is a fool's game. Anyone who expects to be more than half-right half of the time will surely be disappointed. (See this SNS article for an example.) Nonetheless, I like my record and would put it up against the record of the Gartners and the Forresters, circa 2000.

Current score: Six right, two wrong, many too early to tell.

Date

Prediction

Result (2/03)

11/93 "I envision a future in which we all are required to build advertising sheilds
around our email boxes, and advertisers constantly mutate their From fields
to duck under our defenses and pelt us with ads."
True
10/95 "The number of hits quantification is based on current paradigms of advertising, and may not be applicable to interactive marketing." True, clickthroughs are now the main advertising measure.

2/00

Devices will rule the Net.

Too soon to tell, but tending that way (think PDAs, radio tags, cell phones)

8/00

“It’s the supply chain stupid” – what I said when asked to summarize the future of exchanges in five words at Delphi Executive Summit in Aspen.

Too soon to tell

8/00

Private exchanges, one to many marketplaces hosted by buyers, will take the place of public exchanges.

True

10/00

High value trademark owners willscramble to snap up real estate in .biz, .info. .web and others.

More or less. The new domains haven’t been a huge hit, though.

11/00

Regarding voice portals: The business model for voice is not yet clear, and it’s not at all a sure thing that consumers will accept advertising.

Voice portals are not yet popular, and two high profile ones have flamed out

2/01

Java support on cell phones won’t show up until mid-2002.

Wrong. By October 2001, there were more than 25 Java phones listed on the JavaMobiles site.

3/01

Wireless devices are going to permanently change the way you do business.

Arguably so

3/01

It’s possible we’ll be seeing the death of the brand concept in the not-so-distant future.

Too soon to tell

4/01

It will only take one high profile success per industry to get the herd back singing the praises of exchanges and eCommerce.

Hasn’t happened yet

4/01

The lack of support in Microsoft’s next OS [XP] will slow Bluetooth adoption slightly, but the main use of the technology, at least out of the gate, will be to get rid of all the wires that clutter up our lives.

True

4/01

Microsoft will be forced to play catch up with a subsequent service pack release to add Bluetooth functionality into XP. 

True

5/01

Unless something is done about the 7,500 tax jurisdictions in the US, taxing online sales will be mayhem for online retailers.

Too soon to tell

6/01

SBT (Scan-Based Trading, where the manufacture owns the retailer’s inventory until the sale) will eventually be the way of the world.

Too soon to tell, but the trend is unmistakable

6/01

Japan’s DoCoMo won’t meet their October 2001 target for releasing their third generation wireless network.

Wrong. DoCoMo actually started limited release in June 2001

7/01

Nokia’s SmartCover wireless payment scheme will probably work fine for employee cafeterias and other relatively controlled situations, but not in the broader market.

Too soon to tell, but there’ve been no press releases on the technology in a year and a half.

7/01

The nationwide rollout of AT&T Wireless’ GPRS service will be slow, completed in 2002.

True

7/01

Microsoft shot themselves in the foot with their “embrace and extend” treatment of Java.

Arguably so

7/01

It’s not at all certain that broadband-in-the-sky technologies will ever deliver.

So far so good – none have launched

3/02

Government regulators will attempt to shut down NANs (Neighborhood Area Networks – community-based WiFi wireless networks) through legislation.

Too soon to tell

4/02

Cell phone network providers will be severely threatened by Wi-Fi wireless networks.

Tending that way. T-Mobile bought a Wi-Fi network.

4/02

Before 2010 youll be able to buy the computing power equivalent to Pixars rendering farm (3,500 processors, 4 terabytes of memory 196 gigabytes of disk for your desktop.

Too soon to tell but you can by 160 gigabytes of disk space now for under $200

6/02

Dropping or changing broadband flat rate policies will not stop the file-swapping phenomenon.

Too soon to tell

6/02

VoWLAN (Voice over Wireless LAN) handsets will blow away the estimated shipments of half a million annually by 2006 and threaten the Bells and the wireless carriers.

Too soon to tell

6/02

Personal digital video (movies of your kids, etc.) will be broadband’s killer app.

Too soon to tell

6/02

Broadband vendors will adopt “tiered” or “metered” bandwidth plans – the more you pay, the faster you go.

Too soon to tell

11/02

Aerie Networks’ attempt to resuscitate the defunct $1 billion Ricochet wireless network will be short-lived.

Too soon to tell

6/03 The for-pay provision of wireless hotspots anyplace other than controlled areas like airports and possibly hotels is a non-starter. No one will ever make any significant money doing it. Too soon to tell
10/03 Radio Frequency Identification (RFID) which will change our lives in some way in the next five years Too soon to tell



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